News & Media
No Gold Medal for June's Numbers
The first half of 2012 has yielded one trend – odd months are up and even months are down! Thus, the 6th month of the year - marking the end of two quarters of “seasawing” vessel arrivals - was down. On the blue water side of the equation, Texas ports were down 6% for the month. This significant drop was enough to cause the year-to-date arrival numbers to fall below 2011’s for the first time this year. While it was only ½ of 1 percent off the previous year this certainly does not bode well for the back half of the year. It seems 2012 may be on the ebb just as 2011 experienced. Fortunately, the Houston Ship Channel/Intercoastal Canal brown water numbers on a year-to-date basis are up nearly 5% despite a 5.5% monthly drop.
On a port-by-port basis everyone but Sabine was down from May to June. The lone exception put up its best arrival numbers for 2012 registering an impressive 22%. Yet, that was not enough to overcome its year to date deficit as Sabine remains 1% below 2011’s arrivals. Texas City and Freeport were this month’s laggards with 11% and 10.5% monthly declines; however, Texas City remains 4% above last year’s arrival activity – a stark contrast to Freeport’s 14% year-to-date decline. Meanwhile, the ports that bracket Texas City – Houston and Galveston – were both off 9% for the month. That is where the similarity ends as Galveston’s year-to-date arrival numbers are 19% off of 2011. Houston, on the other hand, still managed to eke out a 2.3% year-to-date gain. The port of Corpus Christi rounded out the mid-size ports with a 8% monthly drop causing it to slip further behind last year’s running total by 4%.
The vessel type breakdown for the Port of Houston essentially matched its overall performance with only one category – car carriers - tallying positive numbers by one additional arrival. It is noteworthy that the number of car carriers is up 29% for the year – a sign that regional consumption remains positive. Container vessels were flat for the month and remain off by 1% for the year. Nonetheless, that may still reflect guarded optimism given larger number of containers being handled throughout the Port. Bulk and general cargo arrivals fell by 19% and 3% respectively but on a year-to-date basis general cargo still outperformed the first half of 2011 by 9%. This was a marked contrast to bulk’s underperformance of 10%. Tankers and LPG carriers saw nearly identical negative monthly of numbers in the 4% range. That being said, LPG is still up 13% for the first-half of this year. Conversely, tankers remain on the wane for the year with 17.5% fewer arrivals. Even chemical tankers could not continue its monthly run of records as nearly 25% fewer of these vessels called upon the Port. Remarkably, this category remains 92% above last year.
It appears that the energy landscape still dominants the State and regional demand is fueling consumption increases. There are some indications that things may be tapering off as Texas City – a petro-chemical-centric port – posted its lowest arrival numbers for the year while Houston’s tanker numbers have yet to gain any real traction over last year. Even the port of Sabine – another refinery-dominated port – lags as compared to last year. On the other hand, chemicals continue to robustly course through the Port of Houston indicating exports are still strong at least for these materials. There is one rather odd outlier – Brownsville. A relatively sleepy port that typically sees 15 vessel arrivals a month. It is up a respectable 30% for the year. The most likely explanation is the shale gas bonanza that has fueled marine transportation in the southwest Texas corridor. Those bright spots aside, the economic machine that drives maritime commerce may be showing signs of weakness that could lead to another disappointing second half of the year. Accordingly, no gold medal shall be granted for these numbers but maybe – just maybe – the odd year will return with a vengeance and the marine machine will continue to chug through an uncertain election year.
July 2012 Monthly Vessel Report
Thomas P. Marian
Buffalo Marine Service, Inc.
www.BuffaloMarine.com
"Leading the way and dedicated to exceeding expectations."
July, 2012
